Fla. consumer confidence drops a bit but still high for year

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Sept. 4, 2018 – Consumer sentiment fell 2.3 points in August to 98.3 but with a revised figure of 100.6 in July, the Florida consumer sentiment index topped 100 points for the third time this year – an event not seen since 2000.

Among the five components that make up the index, one increased and four decreased this month.

Current attitudes
Floridians' perceptions of their personal financial situations now compared with a year ago showed the biggest decline in this month's reading from 94.1 to 88.2, decreasing 5.9 points.

On the other hand, opinions as to whether this is a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance increased 4 points from 105.4 to 109.4.

"While these two components moved in opposite directions, they showed overall that opinions regarding current economic conditions have decreased slightly among Floridians in August," says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Future conditions
Opinions regarding future economic conditions also decreased this month. Respondents' expectations of their personal financial situations a year from now showed the second biggest drop from 106.9 to 101.7, decreasing 5.2 points.

Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year fell 1.7 points, from 98.2 to 96.5 and anticipation of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years dropped 2.7 points from 98.2 to 95.5.

"Floridians are more pessimistic in August," Sandoval says. "While most of the pessimism comes from the overall expectations regarding the future economic conditions, Floridians also expressed unfavorable perceptions of their personal financial situation now compared with a year ago."

Florida's economy continued expanding with more jobs added this month, tightening the labor market even further. Comparing July 2018 with the same month last year, 210,600 jobs were added statewide, an increase of 2.5 percent.

Among all industries, leisure and hospitality gained the most jobs, followed by construction, education and health services, and professional and business services. Furthermore, unemployment levels in Florida are currently at their lowest since the last recession. According to the latest report, the unemployment rate decreased one-tenth of a percentage point from 3.8 in June to 3.7 in July.

Similarly, overall economic conditions in the U.S. continued to be positive, with a labor market that continued to strengthen, economic activity that has continued rising at a strong rate, and an annual inflation rate close to 2 percent. In view of this economic outlook, the Federal Open Market Committee decided in August to maintain the range of the federal funds interest rate between 1.75 and 2 percent to support further strengthening in the labor market.

"Despite the decline in consumer confidence experienced in August, overall confidence has remained high among Floridians in the last months," Sandoval says. "Given the positive economic outlook, an increase in wages is typically expected to follow after the tightening of the labor market, resulting in greater consumption and economic activity."

Conducted August 1-28, the UF study reflects the responses of 393 individuals who were reached on cellphones, representing a demographic cross section of Florida. The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2, the highest is 150.

© 2018 Florida Realtors®

Flagler County / Palm Coast Saltwater Canal Home Sales Report - January 2018

Robert "Bobby" Keith, Realtor - 386-793-1426

     In January 2018, a total of 9 homes on the Saltwater Canal sold in Flagler County.  The average sales price for last months Saltwater Canal Homes in Palm Coast / Flagler County was $333,778 while the average days on market was 106 days.

     Compared to the same time last year, January 2017,  8 homes on the Saltwater Canal sold in Flagler County. The average sales price then was $321,313 while the average days on market was 59.

     The top home sale in January 2018 was 14 Cormorant Court in the Palm Harbor neighborhood of Palm Coast, selling at $412,000.

     The deal of the month was 305 Flagler Ave North, in Flagler Beach, selling at $210,000. 

     Here's a breakdown of last months sales activity on the saltwater canal in Flagler County.

Palm Harbor / Palm Coast

14 Cormorant Court - $412,000

10 Crow Court - $400,000

1 Charles Court - $381,000

36 Clearview Court North - $321,000

14 Felicia Court - $260,000

6 Cool Water Court - $260,000

 

Flagler Beach

614 Cumberland Drive - $385,000

148 Lantana Avenue - $375,000

305 Flagler Avenue North - $210,000

     Thank you for checking out this Months Sales Report for the Saltwater Canal Homes in Flagler County.  All information is believed to be true and accurate, but not guaranteed.  The source for the information above is from the Flagler County MLS.  This is not intended to be an estimate of any ones home value.  To find your homes value in this market, give me a call and we will schedule a free valuation on your property or have one sent to your email based off information you tell me and information from the property appraisers office within 24 hours.

Robert "Bobby" Keith, Realtor 386-793-1426

NAHB panel: Housing will continue to gain ground in 2018

NAHB panel: Housing will continue to gain ground in 2018

ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 10, 2018 – The newly enacted tax law will create a more favorable tax climate for the business community, which should spur job and economic growth and keep single-family housing production on a gradual upward trajectory in 2018, according to economists speaking at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) International Builders' Show in Orlando, Fla., on Tuesday.

"We expect that tax reform will boost GDP growth to 2.6 percent in 2018, and this added economic activity will also bode well for housing, although there will be some transition effects in high-tax jurisdictions," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "Ongoing job creation, expected wage increases and tight existing home inventory will also boost the housing market in the year ahead."

However, builders will continue to deal with ongoing supply-side headwinds this year that will dampen more robust growth.

Those headwinds include an increasing number of unfilled construction jobs, a shortage of buildable lots and a slow growth in acquisition, development and construction loan activity that is failing to keep pace with rising demand.

In addition, regulatory costs stemming from building codes, land use, environmental and other rules have jumped 29 percent in the past five years, with a significant impact on housing affordability. The ongoing U.S.-Canada softwood lumber trade dispute is further exacerbating the situation, as the price of softwood lumber has increased 20 percent from a year ago.

The forecast

• As the economy continues to strengthen, NAHB expects 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will average 4.31 percent in 2018 and 4.82 percent in 2019.
• NAHB projects 1.21 million total housing starts in 2017 and expects overall production to grow an additional 2.7 percent this year to 1.25 million units.
• Single-family starts are expected to rise 5 percent in 2018 to 893,000 units and increase an additional 5 percent to 940,000 next year.
• Setting the 2000-2003 period as a benchmark for normal single-family housing activity when single-family production averaged 1.3 million units annually, single-family starts are expected to gradually rise from 63 percent of what is considered a typical market in the third quarter of 2017 to 73 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2019.

On the multifamily side, NAHB expects multifamily starts to edge 1.6 percent lower this year to 354,000 units from a projected 360,000 in 2017 – a "sustainable level due to demographics and the balance between supply and demand."

Meanwhile home remodeling is posting strong market conditions, due in part to strong demand in the wake of the terrible hurricane and wildfire season in 2017. Residential remodeling activity is expected to register a 7 percent gain in 2018 over last year.

Healthy housing markets

Delving beneath the national numbers, David Berson, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, said the vast majority of local housing markets are healthy and faring well.

Berson lists 324 markets as positive, 69 as neutral and just seven as negative. While job gains, household formations and mortgage markets still look good, he noted that rapid price increases are concerning.

Comparing current conditions with the housing boom a decade ago, Berson noted that the market is supply constrained today but wasn't during the boom. And mortgage credit, while more readily available than just a few years ago, remains far limited relative to the market peak in 2007. While he anticipates a slightly more rapid rise in mortgage interest rates this year, Berson said it should not hurt housing activity.

"Mortgage rates are expected to rise from 4 percent to 4.5 percent by the end of year," he said. "However, housing demand remains strong and wages are solid, and this will more than offset the negative effects from rising rates."

Home prices up, affordability down

CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft also expects mortgage interest rates and home prices to post moderate increases in 2018, which in turn will lessen housing affordability. Like Berson, Nothaft expects that the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 4.5 percent by the end of the year.

"Higher rates are not just a gradual erosion of affordability but also impact owner mobility," said Nothaft. "That has implications on the overall inventory for sale. Supply has been tight and for-sale inventory will continue to remain tight."

The ongoing tight inventory in the housing market will cause home and rent price growth to outpace inflation, he added, with nationwide home prices rising an average 5 percent and rental prices posting a 3 percent increase.

The biggest growth for new home sales are occurring in the South and West, where many of these metro areas have good job growth, good affordability and good weather. Nothaft listed Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Phoenix, Atlanta and Charlotte as the top seven major markets in terms of new home sales.

Meanwhile, he reported that overall mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, but that is a different story for markets pummeled by last year's devastating hurricanes.

"Houston's delinquencies almost doubled year-over-year and that is due almost entirely to Hurricane Harvey," said Nothaft.

© 2018 Florida Realtors®

Florida Chamber: State economy will hit $1 trillion in 2018

Florida Chamber: State economy will hit $1 trillion in 2018

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (January 9, 2017) – The Florida Chamber Foundation, Florida's non-partisan, business-led, nonprofit research organization, announced today that it expects Florida to become a $1 trillion economy by the end of 2018 and will create 180,000 jobs across Florida in 2018 – once again outpacing the U.S. economy in job growth.

"If Florida was a stock, it would be considered a strong buy. But, while Florida's economic outlook for 2018 is positive, it's not without risks, some of which can be mitigated and some of which are larger than Florida," says Mark Wilson, president and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

An outline of key findings announced at the Florida Chamber Foundation's 2018 Economic Outlook Summit:

1. Florida will continue to lead the nation in job creation. Since the recession, Florida has created an average of 1 in every 10 jobs in the U.S. Florida Chamber Foundation predictions estimate Florida will create 180,000 jobs in 2018. For the eighth year in a row, Florida's job creation is expected to outpace the U.S.

2. Very low probability of a recession. Currently, the Florida Leading Indicators Index projects strong growth is expected and there is a 91percent likelihood Florida will NOT enter into recession over the next nine months.

3. Florida is projected to become a $1 trillion economy in 2018. It's already larger than Saudi Arabia and preparing to overtake Mexico's spot in the global economy in the coming years.

4. Business confidence is high. Initial findings released at the Florida Chamber Foundation's 2018 Economic Outlook Summit from a statewide survey of Florida "C Suite" executives conducted for the Florida 2030 report show "very high" business confidence and a likelihood of continued investments over the coming months. (Full survey results will be released in March 2018.)

5. Population growth will continue to drive Florida's economy. Florida currently ranks as the 3rd most populous state in the nation and has been growing at a rate of more than 800 residents per day over the past year. This level of growth, at a minimum, is expected to continue through 2018. The influx of Puerto Rican evacuees that will choose to stay in Florida and the recently passed federal tax bill that favors low-tax states like Florida could mean an increase in skilled professionals and families moving from high tax states like New York and California.

6. Florida could do more. Florida's growth, while expected to remain positive, continues to have two potential constraining variables: a potential shortage of skilled labor, especially in construction, and an attainable housing shortfall.

7. Long term risks exist. While Florida's economy remains strong, long-term risks include global risk and uncertainty, losing consistent leadership at the state level and a rise in the cost of living and doing business, due to overregulation and Florida's bottom-ranked legal climate.

© 2018 Florida Realtors®

Flagler County Saltwater Canal Home Sales Report Summary November 2017

Flagler County Saltwater Canal Home Sales Report Summary November 2017

  In November, a total of 13 homes on the Saltwater Canal sold in Flagler County.  The average sales price for this months Saltwater Canal Homes was $348,100 while the average days on market was 72 days in Flagler County.

     Compared to the same time last year, November 2016, 11 homes on the Saltwater Canal sold in Flagler County with an average sales price of $327,636 taking on average 140 days on market to sell.

     The top home sale of the month was 34 Claridge Court in the Palm Harbor neighborhood, selling at $585,000.

     The deal of the month was 39 Farraday Lane, also in the Palm Harbor neighborhood, selling at $175,000. 

HUD Announces new FHA Loan Limits for 2018

HUD announces new FHA loan limits for 2018

WASHINGTON – Dec. 11, 2017 – The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced the agency's new schedule of loan limits for 2018, which will increase in most areas of the country with 3,000 counties affected. The new loan limits go into effect on Jan. 1, 2018.

• Read FHA's Mortgagee Letter on 2018 Forward Mortgage Limits

• Read FHA's Mortgagee Letter on 2018 Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) Limits

Under the National Housing Act (amended by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 or HERA), FHA must set single-family forward loan limits at 115 percent of median house prices, subject to a floor and a ceiling on the limits. FHA calculates the limits by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and county.

In high-cost areas of the country, FHA's loan limit ceiling will increase to $679,650 from $636,150. FHA will increase its floor to $294,515 from $275,665.

Additionally, the national mortgage limit for FHA-insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs), or reverse mortgages, will increase to $679,650 from $636,150. HECM limits don't vary by MSA or county; instead, the single limit applies to all mortgages regardless of location.

The maximum loan limits for FHA forward mortgages will rise in 3,011 counties; in 223 counties, FHA's loan limits won't change.

Today, FHA's minimum national loan limit, or floor, is set at 65 percent of the national conforming loan limit of $453,100. This floor applies to those areas where 115 percent of the median home price is less than the floor limit. Any areas where the loan limit exceeds this 'floor' is considered a high-cost area, and HERA requires FHA to set its maximum loan limit "ceiling" for high-cost areas at 150 percent of the national conforming limit.

To find a complete list of FHA loan limits, areas at the FHA ceiling, areas between the floor and the ceiling, as well as a list of areas with loan limit increases, visit FHA's Loan Limits Page.

© 2017 Florida Realtors

US Consumer Confidence Improved Again

U.S. consumer confidence improved again

NEW YORK – Nov. 30, 2017 – Consumer confidence, which had improved in October, increased even more in November.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 129.5 (1985=100), up from 126.2 in October. The Present Situation Index increased from 152.0 to 153.9, while the Expectations Index rose from 109.0 last month to 113.3.

"Consumer confidence increased for a fifth consecutive month and remains at a 17-year high (Nov. 2000, 132.6)," says Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. "Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved moderately, while their expectations regarding the short-term outlook improved more so, driven primarily by optimism of further improvements in the labor market."

Franco says that consumers are "entering the holiday season in very high spirits and foresee the economy expanding at a healthy pace into the early months of 2018."

Current situation
Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved moderately in November. The percentage saying business conditions are "good" increased from 34.4 percent to 34.9 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" declined from 13.5 percent to 12.7 percent.

Consumers' assessment of the labor market also improved. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" increased from 36.7 percent to 37.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased slightly from 17.1 percent to 16.9 percent.

Short-term economic outlook
Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook was also more favorable in November. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased slightly from 22.1 percent to 22.4 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased from 7.0 percent to 6.5 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the job market was also more upbeat than in October. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 18.7 percent to 22.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined from 11.6 percent to 11.0 percent.

Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement decreased marginally from 20.3 percent to 20.1 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease was virtually unchanged at 7.6 percent.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 14.

© 2017 Florida Realtors

NEW LISTING ALERT - 33 Island Estates Parkway Palm Coast, Florida

NEW LISTING ALERT - 33 Island Estates Parkway Palm Coast, Florida

     Unbelievable deal in the prestigious gated community of Island Estates. One of the few communities where you can dock your boat in your backyard and still walk or bike to the ocean. Sensational custom home featuring three bedrooms, upstairs loft, office and 3 1/2 bathrooms. Wood burning fireplace for those chilly nights. Soaring ceilings upon entry, over-sized pool with hot tub overlooking an acre of stately grounds. Waterfront with room for a large dock and boat-lift leading you out to the Intracoastal waterway. This magnificent home has so much to offer and is awaiting a new owner to bring it back to its potential.

     This is a foreclosure property with great bones but needs some TLC.  Offered at $569,900, excellent investment, vacation home or primary residence. 

   

 Give Robert "Bobby" Keith, Realtor a call for your private showing or inquire.  386-793-1426

2 out of 3 Republicans and Democrats Value Homeownership

SEATTLE – Nov. 10, 2017 – Homeownership is an American value that transcends political parties, according to the latest biannual Zillow Housing Aspirations Report. It found that 68.7 percent of Republicans and 65.1 percent of Democrats consider homeownership essential to living the American Dream.

In the survey, 73 percent of self-identified Republicans and Democrats agreed that homeownership is key to a higher social status, and that owning a home increases someone's standing in the local community.

Many issues have a distinct political divide, but the majority of Republicans and Democrats agree on the value of homeownership.

"In a time of political division, these survey results remind us of something most Americans share – the sense that owning a home is a big part of living the American Dream," says Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. "Homeownership – and its ability to create wealth, stability and community – doesn't depend on political affiliation. As we debate the national and local politics surrounding affordability and tax reform, it's worthwhile to pause and remember a value most of us can agree on."

According to the survey, most Americans agree that buying a home is part of the American Dream, and it's also a good financial decision in markets that are regularly setting record-high prices as well as those that have yet to recover from the housing crash.

Los Angeles is one of the least affordable housing markets in the country, and nearly half of the survey respondents expect they will have to wait at least three years to buy a home. However, Los Angeles residents are more likely than residents of other large metropolitan areas to say that owning a home is necessary to live the American Dream, with 72 percent of respondents agreeing with the statement.

In Las Vegas, home values are still 23.3 percent below the peak values set during the housing bubble, and 15.9 percent of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. Despite this, 67 percent of Las Vegas respondents agree that homeownership is essential to the American Dream.

Republicans and Democrats both tend to think that homeownership offers advantages beyond financial benefits. The majority of respondents to the survey view owning a home as better for raising a family, making ties within the community and overall quality of life, regardless of their local housing market.

© 2017 Florida Realtors