Monthly Flagler County Waterfront Sales Reports & Florida Realtors® News
ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 22, 2019 – Florida's housing market reported higher median prices and increased inventory (active listings) in December compared to a year ago, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. However, buyer uncertainty from rising mortgage rates and the federal government's shutdown may have impacted home sales, which were lower than the level of sales a year ago. Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 20,633 last month, down 9.9 percent compared to December 2017.
NAR: U.S. home sales down 6.4% in Dec.
/WASHINGTON – Jan. 22, 2019 – After two consecutive months of increases, existing-home sales declined in the month of December, according to the National Association of Realtors®(NAR). None of the four major U.S. regions saw a gain in sales activity last month.
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).
Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says current housing numbers are partly a result of higher interest rates.
"The housing market is obviously very sensitive to mortgage rates," Yun says. "Softer sales in December reflected consumer search processes and contract signing activity in previous months when mortgage rates were higher than today. Now, with mortgage rates lower, some revival in home sales is expected going into spring."
The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $253,600, up 2.9 percent from December 2017 ($246,500). December's price increase marks the 82nd straight month of year-over-year gains.
Total housing inventory at the end of December decreased to 1.55 million, down from 1.74 million existing homes available for sale in November, but that's a year-to-year inventor increase from 1.46 million.
Unsold inventory is at a 3.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 last month and up from 3.2 months a year ago.
Homes also stayed on the market a bit longer before securing a contract. They typically stayed on the market for 46 days in December, up from 42 days in November and 40 days a year ago. However, 39 percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month.
"Several consecutive months of rising inventory is a positive development for consumers and could lead to slower home price appreciation," says Yun. "But there is still a lack of adequate inventory on the lower-priced points and too many in upper-priced points."
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.64 percent in December from 4.87 percent in November. The average commitment rate for all of 2017 was 3.99 percent.
"The partial shutdown of the federal government has not had a significant effect on December closings, but the uncertainty of a shutdown has the potential to harm the market," says NAR President John Smaby. "Once the government is fully reopened, I am hopeful that housing transactions will increase."
First-time buyers were responsible for 32 percent of sales in December, down from November (33 percent), but the same year-to-year.
All-cash sales accounted for 22 percent of transactions in December, up from November and a year ago (21 and 20 percent, respectively). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 13 percent of homes in December, which is unchanged from November but down year-to-year (16 percent).
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2 percent of sales in December, unchanged from 2 percent last month and down from 5 percent a year ago.
Single-family and condo/co-op sales
Single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.45 million in December, down from 4.71 million in November, and 10.1 percent below the 4.95 million sales pace one year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $255,200 in December, up 2.9 percent from December 2017.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 540,000 units in December, down 12.9 percent from last month and down 11.5 percent from a year ago. The median existing condo price was $240,600 in December, which is up 2.3 percent from a year ago.
Regional breakdownDecember existing-home sales in the Northeast decreased 6.8 percent to an annual rate of 690,000 and also 6.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $283,400, which is up 8.2 percent from December 2017.
In the Midwest, existing-home sales fell 11.2 percent from last month to an annual rate of 1.19 million in December, down 10.5 percent overall from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $191,300, unchanged from last year.
Existing-home sales in the South dropped 5.4 percent to an annual rate of 2.09 million in December, down 8.7 percent from last year. The median price in the South was $224,300, up 2.5 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West dipped 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.02 million in December, and 15 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $374,400, up 0.2 percent from December 2017.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
FAU study: Market overheated but buyer demand still high
/BOCA RATON, Fla. – Jan. 18, 2019 – National housing prices as a whole are slightly overheated and residential real estate markets are experiencing minimal downward pressure on the demand for homeownership, according to a new study from faculty at the Florida Atlantic University College of Business.
The study's author, Ken Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist with FAU's College of Business, said the U.S. is nearing the peak of the current housing cycle, evidenced by the fact that property prices around the country are increasing but at a decreasing rate, meaning property appreciation is slowing.
The study, "Where Are We Now with Housing: A Report," investigates and compares the current status of U.S. housing at a national level with that of housing at the peak of the last cycle in July 2006.
"All evidence is suggesting that the national housing market is peaking," Johnson says. "However, this time around, from a national perspective, things should turn out quite differently."
Based on scores from the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index, which Johnson co-authors, and data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home Price NSA Index, the study finds that housing prices are currently 7.3 percent above their long-term pricing trend, but with minimal downward pressure on the demand for homeownership.
For comparison, at the peak of the last housing cycle, prices were 31 percent above their long-term pricing trend. Johnson's BH&J Index was nearing a score of 1 (the highest possible score) in the summer of 2006, indicating extreme downward pressure on the demand for homeownership. Today, that score stands at .039.
"It looks like we're in for more of a very high tide, as opposed to a tsunami, as residential prices peak in this latest cycle," Johnson says. "At a minimum, we can expect flatter housing price growth. At worst, we could experience price declines slightly below the long-term pricing trend."
Johnson's research is based on a national composite of housing prices and estimates of the downward pressure on the demand for homeownership, so the housing picture in some cities will look vastly different from others. For instance, three metropolitan markets – Dallas, Denver and Houston – are all currently significantly above their long-term housing price trends, with very high scores on the BH&J Index.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
Thinking of Buying or Selling a Waterfront Home?
Some Florida Cities Top U.S, Charts - Fort Myers No. 1
/Some Fla. cities top U.S. growth charts – Fort Myers No. 1
ORLANDO, Fla. – Oct. 3, 2018 – In a WalletHub study of growth in U.S. cities, Fort Myers ranked at the top both overall and in the small-city category – but the state overall showed strong growth. In the ranking of large metro areas, Miami ranked second after Austin, Texas. In the ranking of midsize cities, Lehigh Acres ranked sixth.
To determine growth over a seven-year period, WalletHub used 15 metrics to compare 515 U.S. cities. The study included only the area within city limits, and they ranged from a score of 76.57 (Fort Myers) down to 17.27 (Shreveport, La.) The lowest Florida score was Lauderhill's 36.27.
Florida's large cities by rank out of a total of 66, ranking 65.83 to 28.27
2. Miami: 65.75
19. Tampa: 53.42
26. Jacksonville: 50.61
Florida's medium cities by rank out of a total of 233, ranking 73.55 to 29.80
5. Lehigh Acres: 71.00
12. Cape Coral: 64.38
21. Orlando: 59.66
30. Davie: 57.63
40. Pompano Beach: 55.82
42. Port St. Lucie: 55.549
45. Coral Springs: 54.87
50. Brandon: 54.59
52. Miramar: 54.17
64. West Palm Beach: 52.44
67. Pembroke Pines: 52.18
71. St. Petersburg: 51.81
73. Palm Bay: 51.73
78. Lakeland: 50.76
80. Clearwater: 50.60
97. Hollywood: 48.64
100. Fort Lauderdale: 48.44
113. Hialeah: 47.55
121. Miami Gardens: 46.63
147. Spring Hill: 44.64
180. Tallahassee: 40.09
185. Gainesville: 39.22
Florida's small cities by rank out of a total of 200, ranking 76.57 to 17.27
1. Fort Myers: 76.57
15. Boynton Beach: 60.51
16. Sunrise: 60.04
18. Town 'n' Country: 58.31
22. Boca Raton: 56.69
26. Palm Coast: 55.50
38. Largo: 52.67
42. Deltona: 51.47
48. Weston: 50.36
53. Plantation: 49.56
59. Deerfield Beach: 48.30
85. Melbourne: 44.72
98. Miami Beach: 43.52
134. Kendall: 38.47
152. Lauderhill: 36.27
© 2018 Florida Realtors®
Realtor.com: Inventory Crisis Appears to be Ending
/Realtor.com: Inventory crisis appears to be ending
SANTA CLARA, Calif. – Oct. 3, 2018 – Realtor.com's September housing report shows national inventory has started to flatten, signaling a crucial inflection point for the inventory crisis. The numbers are based on listings submitted to realtor.com for the month, and it refers to realtor.com listing prices rather than actual selling prices.
According to the realtor.com report, inventory declined a small 0.2 percent from a year ago, but it's poised for positive growth ahead thanks to an 8 percent increase in new listings – the largest yearly jump since 2013.
"After years of record-breaking inventory declines, September's almost flat inventory signals a big change in the real estate market," says Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com. "Would-be buyers who had been waiting for a bigger selection of homes for sale may finally see more listings materialize.
"But don't expect the level to jump dramatically," Hale warns. "Plenty of buyers in the market are scooping up homes as soon as they're listed, which will keep national increases relatively small for the time being."
Florida cities cited in realtor.com's September study
Jacksonville: Current inventory up 14%; new inventory up 54%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: Current inventory up 7%; new inventory up 65%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach: Current inventory up 3%; new inventory up 79%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: Current inventory down 1%; new inventory up 50%
