Fla. consumer confidence fairly steady in Jan.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Jan. 29, 2019 – Consumer sentiment among Floridians fell three-tenths of a point to 97.8 in January from a revised figure of 98.1 in December. It's down 3.5 points year-to-year.

Of the five components that make up the index, two decreased and three increased.

Current conditions
Floridians' opinions about current economic conditions were mixed. Perception of one's personal financial situation now compared with a year ago increased 6.1 points from 88.1 to 94.2 – the greatest increase of any reading this month. This opinion is shared by all Floridians across sociodemographic groups but is stronger among those with incomes under $50,000.

On the other hand, opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item, such as an appliance, showed the greatest decline in this month's readings, moving from 109.6 to 99.8 – a change of 9.8 points. This opinion is shared by all Floridians but is stronger among women and those aged 60 and older.

"Although these two components of the index moved in opposite directions, together they showed that opinions regarding current economic conditions deteriorated among Floridians in January," says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Future conditions
Outlooks about future economic conditions were also mixed. Expectations of personal finances a year from now increased three points from 106 to 109, but anticipations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased nine-tenths of a point from 94 to 93.1.

Finally, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased slightly, moving two-tenths of a point higher, from 92.8 to 93.

"The pessimistic views about the short-term outlook on the U.S. economy are not shared by all Floridians," says Sandoval. "Those aged 60 and older and those with incomes under $50,000 maintain strong positive expectations. Furthermore, even though this component of the index decreased, overall expectations about future economic conditions increased in January. Most of the pessimism stems from the negative expectations regarding Floridians' opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket item."

During the last year, after seeing the realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee increased the target range for the federal funds rate. In June, the committee increased the range to 1.75 to 2 percent, in September to 2 to 2.25 percent, and in December to 2.25 to 2.5 percent.

"Although these changes in the federal funds rate might take time to spread through the economy, they are gradually increasing the cost of borrowing by affecting other interest rates such as bank loans, mortgages and credit cards," says Sandoval. "As a result, they might explain some of the changes observed regarding the opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item."

Forecast
Florida's economic conditions remain favorable, with more jobs added in December.

According to the latest report from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, the state gained 231,200 jobs over the year in December, an increase of 2.7 percent. Among all industries, education and health services gained the most jobs, followed by leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and construction. The unemployment rate was 3.3 percent, unchanged from the November rate, and closer to the historical observed minimum of 3.1 percent in March 2006.

"Despite the slight decline, consumer sentiment continued to be high in Florida. In view of the realized economic outlook, particularly in the labor market, it is unlikely that federal funds rate changes will undermine the current economic expansion," says Sandoval.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Florida Realtors Real Estate Trends: No home price bubble

ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 25, 2019 – To Realtors, homeowners and others who ask, "Are we in another house price bubble?" – the answer is "No," according to Dr. Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac deputy chief economist, who spoke to a crowd of more than 400 Realtors at the 2019 Florida Real Estate Trends summit Thursday during Florida Realtors Mid-Winter Business Meetings.

Kiefer said he and other analysts have been researching home price growth trends and other economic factors to answer the "bubble" question.

"Home prices are up, but that by itself is no indication of a bubble; you need an element of speculation or credit financing involved as well," he said. "We looked at credit, capacity and collateral. In the mortgage space, credit has not expanded in anything like we saw a decade ago. As a result, the default potential rate is pretty low. And we clearly don't see the types of financing products that pushed the dynamics then."

While incomes are up, they're not matching the pace of rising home prices, he noted.

Still, mortgage debt payments as a percentage of disposable income has declined significantly, largely due to lower mortgage interest rates.

"In the downturn, people were taking on a lot of debt, which in turn pushed up prices," Kiefer said. "Now, looking at total mortgage debt compared to equity, we're not seeing that kind of speculation or problem."

He added, "So, when I'm asked about a bubble, I do say no – but the way I pause before I say no has been extending a bit as home prices continue to rise more than incomes. However, in our view (Freddie Mac economists), house prices will moderate as mortgage rates rise."

So, what's ahead for the U.S. economy and housing market in 2019?

"Employment and a little bit of income growth will be key to supporting homebuyer demand," Kiefer said. "Inflation is going to drive the Federal Reserve policy. It's been pretty tame the past few months. We at Freddie Mac expect one to two rate hikes in 2019 as opposed to the four hikes in 2018, though that will be data-dependent."

The general U.S. economy should experience modest growth, he said, while mortgage interest rates should gradually rise throughout the rest of the year and be somewhere around 5 percent by the end of the year – about a 1/2 percentage point rise from the current rate.

"When interest rates rise, the housing market responds pretty negatively and home sales go down," Kiefer said. "But looking ahead to spring, we should see stabilization of home sales and modest growth in the U.S. economy. Our forecast nationally is for housing prices to moderate substantially over the next few years. However, one of the biggest challenges for the overall economy is a lack of new housing supply."

2019 economic forecast for Florida

Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O'Connor discussed the outlook for Florida's economy and housing market in the coming year. In terms of job growth, Florida has done better than the U.S. for the past few years (since 2013) and ended 2018 with an annual job growth rate of 3.3 percent compared to the U.S. figure of 1.9 percent, he said. The state's population growth has not yet returned to the 2 percent annual growth rate it had before the downturn, but the latest Census figures show a 1.5 percent population growth rate from 2017-2018, ranking Florida No. 5 among states.

Looking at Florida's price growth trends for single-family homes, the market is bifurcated, he noted.

"We're finding that different price tiers are definitely appreciating at different rates," O'Connor said. "The range up to $200,000 is up almost 12 percent (in price growth), while the range of $600,000 and over has less growth. There's a lack of affordable housing supply in the lower price tier, while the upper levels are almost a balanced market."

Lack of new housing supply is constraining the market and more construction is needed, he said. However, construction is hampered by a shortage of skilled construction workers, rising cost of materials, lack of land available and other factors.

In good news for Florida's housing market, active inventory at the end of 2018 was up compared to the end of 2017.

O'Connor added, "For perspective, it's not a significantly huge increase in active inventory: it's up 13.3 percent for existing single-family homes and up 8 percent for condo-townhouse properties. And, it's notable that the $200,000 to $300,000 price tier of housing inventory is up, which is the sweet spot for millennials. Despite the fact that we have slightly higher inventory, closed sales are also still rising (with the exception of December's data). Rising inventory is, so far, a good thing."

With current data showing that Florida is outpacing the nation in terms of home sales and employment growth, he forecasts that 2019 should see about a 1 percent growth in home sales and maybe 3 to 4 percent price growth. That's in contrast to the National Association of Realtors' (NAR) forecast for national home and condo sales to remain relatively flat in 2019.

Florida's water issues

While the housing market and economy were the focus of the first half of the event, the second half focused on Florida's water quality issues.

"We may not be the solution, but we can be a big part of raising awareness and educating ourselves and others about Florida's water quality issues," said 2019 Florida Realtors President Eric Sain, Water quality experts speaking at the summit included Dr. Paul Julian, Office of Ecosystems Projects, Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP); Dr. Greg DeAngelo, deputy director, Division of Environmental Assessment and Restoration, DEP; and Dr. Kate Hubbard, research scientist, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission-Fish and Wildlife Research Institute (FWC-FWRI).

Hubbard, who leads the harmful algal bloom monitoring and research program, provided an overview of red tide and explained how the monitoring and research program works. Red tide is a marine (seawater) harmful algal bloom while blue-green algae is a freshwater bloom.

"The toxins in red tide kill fish, birds, sea turtles, manatees and dolphins," she explained. "Then there are health impacts on humans, Filtering shellfish, like clams, oysters and mussels, accumulate the toxins and can cause neurotoxic shellfish poisoning in human consumers. This toxin also is carried in aerosol form in sea spray and causes respiratory irritation in humans."

Red tide blooms begin 10-40 miles offshore, in deep water, Hubbard said. It is ecologically flexible, with a high tolerance for different temperatures and levels of salinity. It also can use many different sources to fuel its growth, including dead fish.

"A huge network of people helps in monitoring and researching red tide," she said. "Red tide has been occurring for centuries. Strategies to improve resilience and mitigation are continually being evaluated, created and implemented."

Realtors and others can check on red tide on a daily basis by going to myfwc.com/redtidestatus.

The Miami Association of Realtors®was the title sponsor for the 2019 Florida Real Estate Trends event; co-sponsors included the Realtors®of the Palm Beaches and Greater Fort Lauderdale; the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors®; Orlando Regional Realtor®Association; and the Royal Palm Coast Realtor®Association.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Remodeling Magazine releases 2019 Cost vs. Value Report

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jan. 23, 2019 – Remodeling Magazine released its 32nd annual Cost vs. Value Report, which compares the cost of popular remodeling projects to how much the investment will improve a home's resale value.

The 2019 report surveyed more than 3,200 real estate professionals about returns for 22 projects in 136 U.S. markets, an increase from 100 markets last year. The full report is posted online.

For all projects, the overall cost-to-value ratio is 66.1 percent, which is slightly ahead of last year but well below the decade-high of 71.2 percent in 2014.

As in prior years, there are significant variations in different regions. The average payback nationwide for the 22 projects in the 2019 Cost vs. Value report ranges from a high of 123.8 percent for a garage door replacement in the Pacific region, to a low of 45.0 percent for an upscale master suite addition in the mid-Atlantic region.

"With the increasing costs of building materials and labor, we urge remodelers to think like real-estate professionals first," says Clayton DeKorne, editor-in-chief of Remodeling Magazine. "When you adjust your focus to think like a broker first, you can dull clients' No. 1 pain point – cost – with a discussion of the amount that can be recouped, then go on to show them how to think like a remodeler by raising their understanding and appreciation of the total value, not just resale value, of a home."

Due in large part to sharp increases in material costs, the percentage of costs recouped at sale time is trending downward for all the replacement projects. Material costs tend to comprise a greater proportion of replacement projects compared with larger indoor remodels, however, which have a higher percentage of labor costs.

2019 top 10 projects by percentage of cost recouped

1. Garage door replacement (97.5%)

2. 2Manufactured stone veneer (94.9%)

3. Mid-range minor kitchen remodel (80.5%)

4. Wood deck addition (75.6%)

5. Siding replacement (75.6%)

6. Steel entry door replacement (74.9%)

7. Vinyl window replacement (73.4%)

8. Fiberglass grand entrance (71.9%)

9. Wood window replacement (70.8%)

10. Composite deck addition (69.1%)

Highlights from 2019 report

1.Rising materials costs impact rates of returnWhile the overall changes are modest, the latest Cost vs. Value report reflects the robust market the remodeling industry has enjoyed over the past year. But costs have correspondingly increased, and in some cases, significantly so. These increases are likely due to the tariffs that have roiled commodity markets, which have led to a slight downturn in the percentage of costs recouped for some projects; but overall, returns are up slightly compared to last year.

2.Curb appeal projects continue to provide the highest returns
Nine out of the top 10 high-return projects are exterior replacement – or high curb appeal – projects. The three exterior projects with the highest recoup on investment are garage door replacement (97.5%), manufactured stone veneer installation (94.9%), and a wood deck addition (75.6%). Siding replacement and window projects also provided high returns, with the highest recouping interior project being a minor kitchen remodel (80.5%).

3.New for 2019
Two new projects were added to the 2019 Cost vs. Value Report. The first is a roofing replacement job that adds standing-seam metal roofing. Compared with asphalt shingles, metal roofing costs significantly more but brings with it much greater durability. The second project is a revamp of the universal design bathroom, which was first introduced to Cost vs. Value in 2017. While the overall dimensions and features of the current project are comparable, the finishes and mechanicals – including tiled walls and shower, humidity-controlled ventilation and radiant-heat floors – are more consistent with an upscale project than the previous specs allowed.

4.Think like a broker
The reason for high returns on exterior projects, and especially façade facelifts, stems from the valuations set by the real estate community. "Curb appeal" and "first impressions" are central to a real estate professional's estimation of resale value. Granted, a home's exterior will only persuade potential buyers to see more, and first impressions can vary from one individual to the next. But the impact these impressions make is critical in setting the stage for what a buyer is willing to pay for a home.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Fla.’s housing market: Median prices, inventory up in Dec.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 22, 2019 – Florida's housing market reported higher median prices and increased inventory (active listings) in December compared to a year ago, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. However, buyer uncertainty from rising mortgage rates and the federal government's shutdown may have impacted home sales, which were lower than the level of sales a year ago. Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 20,633 last month, down 9.9 percent compared to December 2017.

"Florida's housing sector is continuing to show signs that inventory levels are finally easing in many local markets after being constrained for a long time," says 2019 Florida Realtors President Eric Sain, =""> statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $185,000, up 2.8 percent over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the national median sales price for existing single-family homes in November 2018 was $260,500, up 5 percent from the previous year; the national median existing condo price was $554,760; in Massachusetts, it was $395,000; in Colorado, it was $375,000; and in New York, it was $275,000.

Looking at Florida's condo-townhouse market in December, statewide closed sales totaled 8,156, down 11.4 percent compared to a year ago. Closed sales data continued to show fewer short sales and foreclosures in November: Short sales for condo-townhouse properties declined 39.7 percent and foreclosures fell 33.7 percent year-to-year; while short sales for single-family homes dropped 49.8 percent and foreclosures fell 26.8 percent year-to-year. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

"Notably, this year-over-year decline in sales for December was felt across the nation, not just in Florida, which is evidence that interest rates played at least some role in dampening the number of closings," says Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O'Connor. "Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates began to ramp up in September and had reached a multi-year high of close to 5 percent by mid-October, which is typically when financed sales closing in December go under contract."

Interest rates likely will continue to play a role in determining the direction of Florida's housing markets going forward, O'Conner adds. "Homebuyers considering sitting on the fence until prices come down might want to take note that we're also likely to see significantly higher mortgage rates by that point. While there has been a slight softening in the pace of home price growth since mid-2018, there are currently no signs that Florida home values will experience any wholesale declines over the next year."

Potential homebuyers should also note that Florida's active listings – or inventory levels of for-sale homes – have been trending up across the state, according to O'Connor.

"Statewide, active listings of existing single-family homes have been on the rise since July, which has helped contribute to the softening of price growth, and they continued to climb in December," he says. "At year's end, inventory was up over 13 percent compared to the end of 2017. Importantly, inventory levels are now rising across most of the pricing spectrum, including in some of the more affordable ranges."

According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.64 percent in December 2018, up from the 3.95 percent averaged during the same month a year earlier.

To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Research & Statistics section on floridarealtors.org. Realtors also have access to local market stats (password protected) on Florida Realtors' website.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

NAR: U.S. home sales down 6.4% in Dec.

WASHINGTON – Jan. 22, 2019 – After two consecutive months of increases, existing-home sales declined in the month of December, according to the National Association of Realtors®(NAR). None of the four major U.S. regions saw a gain in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).

Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says current housing numbers are partly a result of higher interest rates.

"The housing market is obviously very sensitive to mortgage rates," Yun says. "Softer sales in December reflected consumer search processes and contract signing activity in previous months when mortgage rates were higher than today. Now, with mortgage rates lower, some revival in home sales is expected going into spring."

The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $253,600, up 2.9 percent from December 2017 ($246,500). December's price increase marks the 82nd straight month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of December decreased to 1.55 million, down from 1.74 million existing homes available for sale in November, but that's a year-to-year inventor increase from 1.46 million.

Unsold inventory is at a 3.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 last month and up from 3.2 months a year ago.

Homes also stayed on the market a bit longer before securing a contract. They typically stayed on the market for 46 days in December, up from 42 days in November and 40 days a year ago. However, 39 percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month.

"Several consecutive months of rising inventory is a positive development for consumers and could lead to slower home price appreciation," says Yun. "But there is still a lack of adequate inventory on the lower-priced points and too many in upper-priced points."

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.64 percent in December from 4.87 percent in November. The average commitment rate for all of 2017 was 3.99 percent.

"The partial shutdown of the federal government has not had a significant effect on December closings, but the uncertainty of a shutdown has the potential to harm the market," says NAR President John Smaby. "Once the government is fully reopened, I am hopeful that housing transactions will increase."

First-time buyers were responsible for 32 percent of sales in December, down from November (33 percent), but the same year-to-year.

All-cash sales accounted for 22 percent of transactions in December, up from November and a year ago (21 and 20 percent, respectively). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 13 percent of homes in December, which is unchanged from November but down year-to-year (16 percent).

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2 percent of sales in December, unchanged from 2 percent last month and down from 5 percent a year ago.

Single-family and condo/co-op sales
Single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.45 million in December, down from 4.71 million in November, and 10.1 percent below the 4.95 million sales pace one year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $255,200 in December, up 2.9 percent from December 2017.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 540,000 units in December, down 12.9 percent from last month and down 11.5 percent from a year ago. The median existing condo price was $240,600 in December, which is up 2.3 percent from a year ago.

Regional breakdownDecember existing-home sales in the Northeast decreased 6.8 percent to an annual rate of 690,000 and also 6.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $283,400, which is up 8.2 percent from December 2017.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales fell 11.2 percent from last month to an annual rate of 1.19 million in December, down 10.5 percent overall from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $191,300, unchanged from last year.

Existing-home sales in the South dropped 5.4 percent to an annual rate of 2.09 million in December, down 8.7 percent from last year. The median price in the South was $224,300, up 2.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West dipped 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.02 million in December, and 15 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $374,400, up 0.2 percent from December 2017.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

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FAU study: Market overheated but buyer demand still high

BOCA RATON, Fla. – Jan. 18, 2019 – National housing prices as a whole are slightly overheated and residential real estate markets are experiencing minimal downward pressure on the demand for homeownership, according to a new study from faculty at the Florida Atlantic University College of Business.

The study's author, Ken Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist with FAU's College of Business, said the U.S. is nearing the peak of the current housing cycle, evidenced by the fact that property prices around the country are increasing but at a decreasing rate, meaning property appreciation is slowing.

The study, "Where Are We Now with Housing: A Report," investigates and compares the current status of U.S. housing at a national level with that of housing at the peak of the last cycle in July 2006.

"All evidence is suggesting that the national housing market is peaking," Johnson says. "However, this time around, from a national perspective, things should turn out quite differently."

Based on scores from the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index, which Johnson co-authors, and data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home Price NSA Index, the study finds that housing prices are currently 7.3 percent above their long-term pricing trend, but with minimal downward pressure on the demand for homeownership.

For comparison, at the peak of the last housing cycle, prices were 31 percent above their long-term pricing trend. Johnson's BH&J Index was nearing a score of 1 (the highest possible score) in the summer of 2006, indicating extreme downward pressure on the demand for homeownership. Today, that score stands at .039.

"It looks like we're in for more of a very high tide, as opposed to a tsunami, as residential prices peak in this latest cycle," Johnson says. "At a minimum, we can expect flatter housing price growth. At worst, we could experience price declines slightly below the long-term pricing trend."

Johnson's research is based on a national composite of housing prices and estimates of the downward pressure on the demand for homeownership, so the housing picture in some cities will look vastly different from others. For instance, three metropolitan markets – Dallas, Denver and Houston – are all currently significantly above their long-term housing price trends, with very high scores on the BH&J Index.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Thinking of Buying or Selling a Waterfront Home?

Some Florida Cities Top U.S, Charts - Fort Myers No. 1

Some Fla. cities top U.S. growth charts – Fort Myers No. 1

ORLANDO, Fla. – Oct. 3, 2018 – In a WalletHub study of growth in U.S. cities, Fort Myers ranked at the top both overall and in the small-city category – but the state overall showed strong growth. In the ranking of large metro areas, Miami ranked second after Austin, Texas. In the ranking of midsize cities, Lehigh Acres ranked sixth.

To determine growth over a seven-year period, WalletHub used 15 metrics to compare 515 U.S. cities. The study included only the area within city limits, and they ranged from a score of 76.57 (Fort Myers) down to 17.27 (Shreveport, La.) The lowest Florida score was Lauderhill's 36.27.

Florida's large cities by rank out of a total of 66, ranking 65.83 to 28.27

2. Miami: 65.75

19. Tampa: 53.42

26. Jacksonville: 50.61

Florida's medium cities by rank out of a total of 233, ranking 73.55 to 29.80

5. Lehigh Acres: 71.00

12. Cape Coral: 64.38

21. Orlando: 59.66

30. Davie: 57.63

40. Pompano Beach: 55.82

42. Port St. Lucie: 55.549

45. Coral Springs: 54.87

50. Brandon: 54.59

52. Miramar: 54.17

64. West Palm Beach: 52.44

67. Pembroke Pines: 52.18

71. St. Petersburg: 51.81

73. Palm Bay: 51.73

78. Lakeland: 50.76

80. Clearwater: 50.60

97. Hollywood: 48.64

100. Fort Lauderdale: 48.44

113. Hialeah: 47.55

121. Miami Gardens: 46.63

147. Spring Hill: 44.64

180. Tallahassee: 40.09

185. Gainesville: 39.22

Florida's small cities by rank out of a total of 200, ranking 76.57 to 17.27

1. Fort Myers: 76.57

15. Boynton Beach: 60.51

16. Sunrise: 60.04

18. Town 'n' Country: 58.31

22. Boca Raton: 56.69

26. Palm Coast: 55.50

38. Largo: 52.67

42. Deltona: 51.47

48. Weston: 50.36

53. Plantation: 49.56

59. Deerfield Beach: 48.30

85. Melbourne: 44.72

98. Miami Beach: 43.52

134. Kendall: 38.47

152. Lauderhill: 36.27

© 2018 Florida Realtors®

Realtor.com: Inventory Crisis Appears to be Ending

Realtor.com: Inventory crisis appears to be ending

SANTA CLARA, Calif. – Oct. 3, 2018 – Realtor.com's September housing report shows national inventory has started to flatten, signaling a crucial inflection point for the inventory crisis. The numbers are based on listings submitted to realtor.com for the month, and it refers to realtor.com listing prices rather than actual selling prices.

According to the realtor.com report, inventory declined a small 0.2 percent from a year ago, but it's poised for positive growth ahead thanks to an 8 percent increase in new listings – the largest yearly jump since 2013.

"After years of record-breaking inventory declines, September's almost flat inventory signals a big change in the real estate market," says Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com. "Would-be buyers who had been waiting for a bigger selection of homes for sale may finally see more listings materialize.

"But don't expect the level to jump dramatically," Hale warns. "Plenty of buyers in the market are scooping up homes as soon as they're listed, which will keep national increases relatively small for the time being."

Florida cities cited in realtor.com's September study

• Jacksonville: Current inventory up 14%; new inventory up 54%

• Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: Current inventory up 7%; new inventory up 65%

• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach: Current inventory up 3%; new inventory up 79%

• Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford: Current inventory down 1%; new inventory up 50%

In September, the U.S. median listing price remained at $295,000, a 7 percent increase year-over-year, but lower than last year's 10 percent increase, according to realtor.com. Homes continued to sell at a relatively rapid pace of 65 days on average – 4 days faster than last year.

More than 465,000 new listings entered the market in September. The new listings were 8 percent ($25,000) cheaper than existing inventory in the market, and 10 percent (200 square-feet) smaller than homes already in the market, on average.

Although single-family home inventory remained relatively flat, declining by only 1 percent, new inventory growth was found in condominiums and townhomes, which are now up 3 percent year-over-year.

The inventory recovery is particularly visible in larger cities. In September, 22 of the 45 largest markets in the U.S. saw year-over-year inventory increases. The five markets that saw the largest inventory jumps were San Jose, Calif.; Seattle; Jacksonville, Fla.; San Diego, and San Francisco, all posting increases of 31 percent or more.

Inventory also rose over last year in Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York.

Combined inventory in the 45 largest markets increased 5.6 percent year-over-year on average.

© 2018 Florida Realtors®

NAR Survey: Homeowners Ready to Sell in 3Q 2018

NAR survey: Homeowners ready to sell in 3Q 2018

WASHINGTON – Sept. 27, 2018 – New findings from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) show that a record high 77 percent of Americans believe that now is a good time to sell a house, while those that think now is a good time to buy continues to decline.

NAR's third quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey also found that a majority of consumers believe prices have and will continue to rise, while the quality of schools is a critical factor in deciding whether or not to buy a home.

Half of all Americans strongly believe now is a good time to sell (compared to 46 percent last quarter), while 27 percent moderately believe this is the right time (29 percent last quarter). Respondents in the West are the most likely to think now is a good time (85 percent) as are those who currently own a home (82 percent). Only 22 percent believe that now is not a good time to sell, down from 29 percent in the second quarter.

Optimism that now is a good time to buy has declined slightly from last quarter. Sixty-three percent of respondents either strongly or moderately believe that now is a good time buy compared to 68 percent last quarter. Among renters, positive feelings about purchasing continue to fall, dropping from 49 percent in the second quarter to 45 percent this quarter. Optimism is highest among older U.S. households (65 or over) and those with a household income of more than $100,000 a year (70 and 68 percent respectively).

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says several consecutive years of strong home price growth are enticing homeowners to consider selling.

"Though the vast majority of consumers believe home prices will continue to increase or hold steady, they understand the days of easy, fast gains could be coming to an end," Yun says. "Therefore, more are indicating that it is a good time to sell, which is a healthy shift in the market."

Respondents were also asked about their view of home prices in their neighborhoods. Seventy percent believe that home prices have gone up in their area in the last 12 months, up from 68 percent in the second quarter. Fifty-three percent also believe that home prices will continue to increase in their communities in the next six months; this is down from the last quarter (55 percent).

Consumers: Positive about economy, concerned about qualifying for a mortgage

A near-record high of 60 percent of households believe that the economy is improving – up slightly from 58 percent last quarter and up significantly from 53 percent in the third quarter of 2017. People in a household income of over $100,000 are more likely to view the economy as improving (67 percent) compared with those with an income $50,000 to $100,000 (64 percent) and under $50,000 (49 percent).

The HOME survey's monthly Personal Financial Outlook Index, showing respondents' confidence that their personal financial situation will be better in six months, rose slightly from 62.1 in June to 62.6 in September. A year ago, the index was 62.0.

Among those who do not currently own a home, 28 percent of those surveyed believe that it would be very difficult to qualify for a mortgage and 31 percent believe that it would be somewhat difficult given their current financial situation (compared to 26 and 28 percent last month respectively). "This is most likely a manifestation of the constantly rising prices," said Yun. "As prices rise so do down payments, making the mortgage qualifying process more challenging."

Homebuying decision: Importance of highly rated schools, other factors

In this quarter's survey, homeowners and non-homeowners were asked how important high rated schools are in their home buying decision. Over two-thirds of those surveyed said that highly rated schools were either very or somewhat important in their decision (47 percent and 23 percent, respectively).

When asked about what considerations were taken into account when choosing a new neighborhood, 25 percent of respondents ranked proximity to friends and family as most important, followed by proximity to their job and a short commute (24 percent). Proximity to friends and family is most important to those in rural areas (31 percent) compared to suburban and urban (25 and 21 percent respectively).

"When you buy a home, you do not just buy the house; you buy a community – neighbors, parks, stores and schools," said NAR President Elizabeth Mendenhall. "Realtors understand the unique qualities of the neighborhoods in their area and can help individual families find and purchase the right home in the right neighborhood."

Respondents were also asked about the number of homes available for sale in their communities. Fifty-six percent of respondents reported that the number of homes available for sale in the neighborhood has remained the same over the past six months, while 23 percent said they have observed more homes for sale than usual.

About NAR's HOME survey

From July through September, a sample of U.S. households was surveyed via random-digit dial, including a mix of cell phones and land lines. The survey was conducted by an established survey research firm, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Each month about 900 qualified households responded to the survey. The data was compiled for this report representing a total of 2,731 household responses.

© 2018 Florida Realtors®

NAR: Pending Home Sales Dip 1.8% in August

NAR: Pending home sales dip 1.8% in August

WASHINGTON – Sept. 27, 2018 – Pending home sales fell slightly in August and have now decreased on an annual basis for eight straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 1.8 percent to 104.2 in August from 106.1 in July. With last month's decline, contract signings are now down 2.3 percent year-over-year.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says that low inventory continues to contribute to the housing market slowdown. "Pending home sales continued a slow drip downward, with the fourth month over month decline in the past five months," he said.

"Contract signings also fell backward again last month, as declines in the West negatively impacted overall activity," he said. "The greatest decline occurred in the West region where prices have shot up significantly, which clearly indicates that affordability is hindering buyers and those affordability issues come from lack of inventory, particularly in moderate price points."

According to the third quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey, a record high number of Americans believe now is a good time to sell. "Just a couple of years ago about 55 percent of consumers indicated it was a good time to sell; that figure has climbed close to 77 percent today."

Added Yun, "With prices having risen so quickly, many consumers were deciding to wait to list their homes hoping to see additional price and equity gains. However, with indications that buyers are beginning to pull out, price gains are going to decelerate and potential sellers are considering that now is a good time to list and bring more properties to the market."

Yun pointed to year-over-year increases in active listings from data at realtor.com® to illustrate a potential rise in inventory. Columbus, Ohio, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash., San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif., Providence-Warwick, RI-Mass. and Nashville, Tenn. saw the largest increase in active listings in August compared to a year ago.

When it comes to rising mortgage rates, Yun believes that while rising rates are always a deterrent to potential buyers, it should not lead to a significant decline. "We have two opposing factors affecting the market: the negative impact of rising mortgage rates and the positive impact of continued job creation. This should lead to future homes sales staying fairly neutral," said Yun. "As long as there is job growth, rising mortgage rates will hinder some buyers; but job creation means second or third incomes being added to households which gives consumers the financial confidence to go out and make a home purchase."

Yun expects existing-home sales this year to decrease 1.6 percent to 5.46 million, and the national median existing-home price to increase 4.8 percent. Looking ahead to next year, existing sales are forecast to rise 2 percent and home prices around 3.5 percent.

August pending home sales regional breakdown

The PHSI in the Northeast dropped 1.3 percent to 92.7 in August, and is now 1.6 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index slid back 0.5 percent to 101.6 in August and is also 1.1 percent lower than August 2017.

Pending home sales in the South dipped 0.7 percent to an index of 121.3 in August, however, that number is 1.3 percent higher than a year ago. The index in the West decreased 5.9 percent in August to 89.1 and plummeted 11.3 percent below a year ago.

© 2018 Florida Realtors®